Shifting immigration and what it means for Canadian business. The challenge now is adopting to a marketplace of flat growth.
In every business, it is essential to follow the trends, statistics and analytics while tying them into your operations and its performance throughout the year. Canadian businesses are learning to be more fluid in this uncertain economy and adjust to new surprises every day.
After a burst of immigration starting in 2022, we are finally starting to see the reversal. In a February 2026 report by the Federal Parliamentary Budget Officer, it was confirmed that “With the decline in the non-permanent resident population, Canada’s total population will remain flat in 2026. Population growth is expected to pick up only modestly to 0.3 per cent in 2027, stabilizing around 0.8 per cent annually over the medium term, which is below its pre-2015 average of 1.1 per cent per year.”
The October 2025 TD Economics Report reported that “Canada’s rapidly decelerating population growth is showing evidence of easing pressure on the social and economic infrastructure.” The pressure is being relieved from housing, health care and other social services.
Shifting immigration flows led to intended effects on housing and the labour market, while consumer spending was not affected. Now business must adapt to a marketplace where population growth is flat.
The good news is that rents should stabilize or decrease as real estate values continue to fall to a balancing point. Business productivity rose 0.9% in Q3 of 2025 as output rebounded with gains driven mainly by goods producing sectors like manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and construction, while services saw modest improvements.
Core supplies will fluctuate as trading relationships are resecured or changed. Labour should remain plentiful as unemployment begins to come down.
Governments will hopefully pivot to a more balanced budget stance, reduce capital expenditures, provide economic input to creation of jobs and productivity. Revisiting programs and projects dedicated to affordability are warranted given the new circumstances.
Stimulating development projects may now have a severe effect on other market values, given that real estate continues to find its equilibrium point and external pressures may extend the downward spiral even more, both from a residential and commercial perspective.
Re focusing on infrastructure projects that will increase productivity is essential in challenging times and as a nation we understand how these have been used effectively to dig ourselves out of tough times in challenging economies.
These will be some of the key trends Canadian businesses need to keep in mind throughout this year and the year to follow.
